Hello world
As the crypto market approaches pivotal zones, traders are bracing for decisive moves in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and HYPE. With contract funding, open interest, and chart structures showing unique breakout setups or looming resistance, opportunity and risk are finely balanced in July’s first full week. Here’s the state of play:
TLDR:
- BTC: Bullish above $105,000; needs spot market strength to break $110k–$112k. Target: $120,000.
- ETH: Range-bound ($2,420–$2,720) with a bullish bias; breakout could target $3,280.
- SOL: Holding critical $144 support; upside target $185, with potential for >$200 down the road.
- HYPE: At stiff resistance, likely due for a short-term pullback.
BTC:
- Open interest is up 10% from the $105k levels, indicating recent leverage-driven upside. Positive spot demand continues, but $110k faces solid selling pressure.
- Funding rate is positive but fluctuates, reflecting minor long bias without excess risk appetite.
- Signs of excessive leverage remain limited; breakout from $110k–$112k will likely require increased spot demand.
BTC’s Open Interest (by USD value):
Technical analysis
- Bounced from $106,000 as predicted, maintaining bullish structure above the top of the broadening downtrend wedge.
- Breakout confirmed above wedge resistance in the past two days.
- Staying above $105,000 keeps BTC in a bullish setup. Immediate hurdles are $110,700 and $112,000.
- Support levels are $106,000 and a zone at $102,500–$103,500.
- RSI has broken out and sits above its moving average—medium-term bullish signal.
- Next Support: $106,000
- Next Resistance: $110,700 (then $112,000)
- Direction: Neutral/Bullish
- Upside Target: $120,000
- Downside Target: $106,000
Cryptonary’s take
BTC has maintained its bullish structure with the breakout from the wedge and is primed for further upside if it can claim $110,700–$112,000. The jobs report put a short-term damper on excitement, but ETF inflows and technical strength remain supportive. Choppy price action is possible for a week or two, but medium-term bias is upward, targeting $120,000 if resistance falls.
What’s next?
A period of sideways trading appears likely for both BTC and ETH as macro headwinds—such as delayed rate cuts—cap upside. Still, foundational demand and positive technical indicators mean that breakouts remain a clear risk to the upside, especially if spot buying resumes in force.
ETH:
- Open interest has risen modestly since late June, but the leverage market remains calm.
- Funding rates hover near zero, with a slight long tilt but no signs of speculative excess.
ETH’s Open Interest (by USD value):
Technical analysis
- Perfect bounce from $2,160 support; price retook the crucial $2,420 level and is consolidating above $2,550.
- Main resistance lies at $2,720, then $2,870. Watching for a breakout above $2,870 to target $3,280.
- RSI is attempting to break out of its downtrend, supported by its average—bullish undertone.
- Next Support: $2,420
- Next Resistance: $2,720
- Direction: Neutral/Bullish
- Upside Target: $3,050
- Downside Target: $2,420
Cryptonary’s take
ETH’s technical posture has improved, now sitting securely in its $2,420–$2,720 range. Expect consolidation to continue, but the odds favor a move above $2,720 in the coming weeks. Accumulation on dips to support is sensible. Any breakout above $2,870 opens the door to a $3,280 target, setting the stage for long-term bulls.
SOL:
- Open interest is rebounding after the $130 lows; funding rates flip between positive and negative as sentiment remains mixed.
- No signs of excessive leverage, but spot buying will be needed for sustained advances.
SOL’s Open Interest (by USD value):
Technical analysis
- Bounced from $130 and reclaimed $144. Breakout from downtrend channel, now consolidating above $144.
- Support to hold is $144; first resistance is $155 and the major target is $185.
- RSI is showing bullish behavior after breaking its downtrend.
- Next Support: $144
- Next Resistance: $155
- Direction: Neutral/Bullish
- Upside Target: $185
- Downside Target: $135
Cryptonary’s take
SOL maintains a bullish look above $144, even as macro factors introduce summer chop. Range trading could persist for a few weeks, but strategic positioning in the $144–$150 zone is optimal ahead of a probable upside breakout, with $185 the technical magnet and the $200+ area a longer-term goal.
HYPE:
- Broke below uptrend and filled buy zone ($30.50–$33.00), then bounced to test resistance at $39.40–$40.00.
- Convergence of key resistance at $39.40–$42.00 with underside of main uptrend line—major inflection zone.
- Support remains at buy zone ($30.50–$33.00). RSI supportive but testing downtrend line.
HYPE’s Open Interest (by USD value):
Technical analysis
- Stalling at overlapping resistance; short-term structure bearish as price fails to clear $39.40–$42.00.
- Next downside target is a retest of $30.50–$33.00.
- Positive RSI setup gives some hope for future upside, but structure favors another pullback first.
- Next Support: $33.00
- Next Resistance: $42.00
- Direction: Bearish
- Upside Target: $42.00
- Downside Target: $30.50
Cryptonary’s take
HYPE’s explosive performance is pausing at a massive resistance zone. Short-term pullback is expected; $30.50–$33.00 remains the ideal re-entry region. More aggressive long-term buys favored on any dip toward $25. Bulls should manage risk and await clear reversal or consolidation before scaling allocations.
AURA:
- Analyzing on 4h chart due to volatility. 65% retrace after $0.24 high, typical for memecoins.
- Support established $0.085–$0.104; price has broken out of downtrend and formed a local bull flag.
- RSI on daily fully reset—room to break up from current consolidation.
Technical analysis
- Support at $0.13 critical; resistances at $0.177 and $0.245. Minor hurdle at $0.161.
- Chart structure forming a ‘cup and handle’ base, bullish if confirmed.
- Next Support: $0.13
- Next Resistance: $0.177
- Direction: Bullish
- Upside Target: $0.245
- Downside Target: $0.116
Cryptonary’s take
AURA has likely bottomed in the $0.085–$0.104 range, forming a bullish setup with major breakout potential. The ‘cup and handle’ points to a $0.50+ target in the long run. Accumulation in the $0.085–$0.245 broad range could produce outsized future returns should the structure hold and breakout materialize.