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Are the crypto markets truly pausing—or winding up for explosive moves? As macro headwinds meet shifting leverage data, an undercurrent of opportunity is forming. In this report, we dive into the precise price levels, open interest signals, and market psychology shaping BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, and breakout candidate AURA.
TLDR:
- BTC: Bullish above $105,000; needs spot demand to break $110k–$112k. Target at $120,000, outlook remains positive if support holds.
- ETH: Range-bound ($2,420–$2,720) with momentum building; breakout eyes $3,280, mid-term outlook constructive.
- SOL: Defending $144 support; setup for $185 upside, possibility above $200 later. Bullish consolidation structure.
- HYPE: Encountering major resistance; likely pullback zone. Not a buy unless support retest occurs.
BTC:
- BTC’s open interest is up 10% from $105k, indicating that recent bullish action has been primarily leverage-driven. Spot bids remain firm, but sellers have appeared into the $110k zone.
- Funding rates are slightly positive, with little sign of excess; traders’ net long exposure is tepid but persistent.
- A significant spot-driven push is still needed for any breakout above $110k–$112k.
BTC’s open interest (by USD value):
Technical analysis
- Bounced at $106,000 as forecasted, confirming critical horizontal support.
- Just broke above the top border of a broadening wedge formed since May—key bullish validation.
- Holding above $105,000 keeps the structure positive; next resistance is $110,700, then the all-time high at $112,000.
- Below $106k, watch for support at $102,500–$103,500. RSI has flipped bullish, suggesting further medium-term upside.
- Next Support: $106,000
- Next Resistance: $110,700 (then $112,000)
- Direction: Neutral/Bullish
- Upside Target: $120,000
- Downside Target: $106,000
Cryptonary’s take
BTC’s bullish breakout from the wedge validates our upward bias. While a hot jobs report delayed rate cuts and dampened the rally short term, ETF flows and macro stability support structure. Some sideways movement is likely in July, but the risk/reward still favors upside to $120k if the $105k–$106k region stays intact.
What’s next?
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ETH:
- ETH’s open interest has crawled upwards from June lows though still trails BTC’s leverage expansion.
- Funding is flat to modestly positive, indicating slight long bias but no speculative excess.
- Market is “unfrothy”—primed for volatility as ranges condense and liquidity builds.
ETH’s open interest (by USD value):
Technical analysis
- Bounced sharply from $2,160, reclaimed $2,420—classic range re-entry.
- Now consolidating above $2,550; local resistance at $2,720, with key breakout line at $2,870.
- RSI is breaking its downtrend, supported by its MA—bullish setup emerging.
- A move above $2,870 opens the door to $3,280. Pullbacks to $2,420 range lows are high-conviction accumulation opportunities.
- Next Support: $2,420
- Next Resistance: $2,720
- Direction: Neutral/Bullish
- Upside Target: $3,050
- Downside Target: $2,420
Cryptonary’s take
ETH range-bound play rewards patient “buy the lows” strategy, favoring steady accumulation for those underweight. A breakout will likely materialize in the coming weeks, especially if BTC surges. We’re positioning for spot entries on retests of $2,420 to ride the next wave north of $3,200 into 2025.
SOL:
- SOL’s open interest rose on bounces above $130, matching a thaw in trader sentiment.
- Funding has alternated between positive/negative, signaling indecision and lack of over-leverage.
- No leverage froth; further gains require new spot demand.
SOL’s open interest (by USD value):
Technical analysis
- Bounced from $130 and swiftly reclaimed $144 support.
- Broke above the mid-term downtrend, using $144 as a launching pad—bullish pattern confirmation.
- Upside barriers lie at $155 and $185, with a longer-term target above $200.
- RSI has reset and now points upward; consolidation above $144 remains critical for bullish follow-through.
- Next Support: $144
- Next Resistance: $155
- Direction: Neutral/Bullish
- Upside Target: $185
- Downside Target: $135
Cryptonary’s take
SOL is structurally bullish above $144 despite summer market “chop.” We’re accumulating on dips between $120–$135 and increasing exposure $144–$150, targeting a move to $185 and positioning well for a Q3-Q4 push beyond $200.
HYPE:
- HYPE broke its uptrend and filled the buy zone at $30.50–$33.00.
- Now testing $39.40–$42 resistance zone—overhead supply is notable.
- Currently rejecting from key resistance, forming a potential reversal setup; RSI suggests there’s room, but resistance prevails short-term.
HYPE’s chart:
- Next Support: $33.00
- Next Resistance: $42.00
- Direction: Bearish
- Upside Target: $42.00
- Downside Target: $30.50
Cryptonary’s take
Short-term, HYPE is likely to see a pullback after failing at resistance, with a dip to $30–$33 a probable setup. That zone is where we’d consider scaling in for longer-term play, but more aggressive entries come as low as $25–$30 if the drawdown expands.
AURA:
- AURA analyzed best on 4hr charts; after a 65% retracement—a memecoin norm—it has built a strong base in the $0.085–$0.104 zone.
- Broke out of its downtrend and is now forming a textbook “cup and handle” bullish pattern.
- Key levels to watch: $0.13 support, $0.177 then $0.245 on the upside; RSI reset gives room for upside expansion.
AURA’s chart:
- Next Support: $0.13
- Next Resistance: $0.177
- Direction: Bullish
- Upside Target: $0.245
- Downside Target: $0.116
Cryptonary’s take
AURA’s bottoming zone matches classic distribution resets and now exhibits a powerful “cup and handle” pattern, targeting $0.50—and possibly much more—long term. Accumulation between $0.085 and $0.245 looks ideal for positioning ahead of a structural breakout, supported by clear technical and sentiment resets.