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BTC, ETH, SOL & HYPE: Will Bulls Take Over as Open Interest Swells? Here’s What the Data Reveals
As volatility returns and traders load up on leverage, the crypto market sits at a crucial crossroads. Are recent rallies in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana sustainable, or is another wave of selling about to take hold? Let’s break down the market structure, positioning, and chart expectations for the days ahead.
TLDR:
- BTC: Bullish above $105,000 but requires spot demand to convincingly clear $110k–$112k. Target: $120,000. Chop likely, structure favors further upside.
- ETH: Range-bound ($2,420–$2,720) with a bullish tilt. Breakout above $2,720 sets up for $3,280. Accumulate on retests of $2,420.
- SOL: Holding $144 support after breakout. Targeting $185, then >$200 later. Structure remains bullish as long as $144 holds.
- HYPE: At resistance; likely pullback towards $30–$33. Short-term bearish, but long-term accumulation zone still intact.
BTC:
- BTC’s open interest is up 10% from the $105k levels, indicating the latest upward move was largely leverage-driven. Spot demand remains, but significant selling pressure has emerged around $110k.
- Funding rate remains positive, revealing a long bias, albeit with swings from slightly positive to negative last week.
- There’s little sign of speculative froth, but further gains require stronger spot buying to clear the $110k–$112k resistance.
BTC’s open interest (by USD value):
Technical analysis
- BTC bounced off $106,000 support and has now broken out of a broadening downtrend wedge pattern formed since May.
- It’s important for price to remain above the wedge for bullish momentum; staying north of $105k maintains positive structure.
- Key resistances are $110,700 and the all-time high at $112,000.
- Supports rest at $106,000 and a zone between $102,500–$103,500.
- RSI has broken its downtrend and risen above the moving average, signaling medium-term bullishness.
- Next Support: $106,000
- Next Resistance: $110,700 (then $112,000)
- Direction: Neutral/Bullish
- Upside Target: $120,000
- Downside Target: $106,000
Cryptonary’s take
Bitcoin remains technically bullish after breaking out from its broadening wedge pattern. Pullbacks have been related to macroeconomic shifts (i.e., stronger jobs data delaying rate cuts), but ETF inflows are steady. Some consolidation or “chop” is likely in coming weeks, but the probability favors eventual upside breakout. As long as $105,000 holds, we expect BTC to push toward $120,000 after overcoming $110k–$112k resistance.
What’s next?
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ETH:
- ETH open interest has edged up since late June but remains generally contained.
- Funding rate hovers near 0–0.01%, showing a slight long bias but limited leverage build-up.
ETH’s open interest (by USD value):
Technical analysis
- ETH rebounded off $2,160, reclaimed $2,420, and is now consolidating above $2,550.
- Key resistance sits at $2,720, with a breakout paving the way to $2,870 and potentially $3,280.
- RSI is turning bullish, breaking its downtrend line while supported by its moving average.
- Next Support: $2,420
- Next Resistance: $2,720
- Direction: Neutral/Bullish
- Upside Target: $3,050
- Downside Target: $2,420
Cryptonary’s take
Ethereum is in a range between $2,420–$2,720 and will likely continue chopping for the next week or so. However, the chart structure tilts bullish, with odds favoring a breakout above $2,720, setting in motion a possible retest of $3,000 or even $3,200. Dips toward $2,420 remain prime accumulation zones for long-term exposure.
SOL:
- Solana open interest has jumped as price rebounded from $130.
- Funding rate wavers between positive and negative, showing market indecision; leverage still appears moderate.
SOL’s open interest (by USD value):
Technical analysis
- SOL has broken out of its downtrend channel and is using $144 as new support.
- $144 is key – a hold above it keeps breakout structure alive.
- Resistance at $155 (local) and $185 (major); above $185 opens >$200.
- RSI is mid-range but positioning bullish, as it leans on its moving average after trend breakout.
- Next Support: $144
- Next Resistance: $155
- Direction: Neutral/Bullish
- Upside Target: $185
- Downside Target: $135
Cryptonary’s take
Solana is positioned for further upside, provided $144 holds as support. Short-term summer “chop” is possible, but all signs point to a major retest of $185 in the coming months. We continue to buy on dips, particularly in the $120–$135 zone, with confidence in longer-term breakout potential above $200 as we approach Q4.
HYPE:
- HYPE broke below its uptrend, filling the $30.50–$33.00 “Yellow Buy Box.”
- It rebounded to retest $39.40, but faces heavy resistance there and up to $42.00.
- There’s convergence of resistance from multiple technical zones, and price is now rejecting off the main trendline.
- RSI is mid-range and supportive, but needs to hold to facilitate any upside.
- Next Support: $33.00
- Next Resistance: $42.00
- Direction: Bearish
- Upside Target: $42.00
- Downside Target: $30.50
Cryptonary’s take
HYPE has performed well since April, but the rally has lost steam at a critical resistance cluster. Short-term, the price likely gets rejected and returns to the $30–$33 area, presenting new entry points for patient buyers. Our plan is to accumulate gradually if support holds, going heavier toward $25–$30 if a bigger selloff hits.