BTC, ETH, SOL Hit Resistance: $105,500 Barrier in Focus

Ceasefire headlines give risk assets relief, but crypto majors now slam into tough resistance. Dovish FED talk adds fuel, yet upside momentum could be stalling right at crucial technical levels. Are market bulls about to get trapped?

The Middle East de-escalation triggered fast rallies for BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE — but each now faces major horizontal barriers. On top of that, dovish signals from the FED put interest rate cuts firmly in play for September, pushing risk appetite. Will ETF inflows and consolidations above support be enough to break through, or is more chop and false hope ahead?

• Ceasefire in Middle East drops oil, boosts risk-on trades, but quick-fire volatility could revive any moment
• Majors like BTC ($105,500), ETH ($2,420), SOL ($144) slam into resistance—consolidation or rejection likely near-term
• FED turning dovish: rate cuts likely September/October, PCE data Friday is crucial for market bets
• Bitcoin ETF inflows stay positive, but momentum must increase for meaningful breakouts
• TOTAL3 (alts/memes) reclaimed key support ($784b), still in downtrend channel—breakout possible on further strength
• Building core positions on pullbacks ahead of Q4 2025 catalysts; tactical buys remain the approach

• Israel-Iran ceasefire and oil price impact
• Dovish FED signals, rate cut probabilities
• BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE at crucial resistance levels
• ETF inflow momentum and risk sentiment
• TOTAL3 (alts/memes) support and breakout potential
• Cryptonary’s market plan and forward strategy

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Middle East tension wanes, markets rally but upside capped

Geopolitical fireworks drove recent market volatility: Iran’s warning-then-launch on the US base in Qatar, followed by restrained escalation and a US-brokered ceasefire. Oil prices reacted violently, plunging as a resolution slipped into view. This was the feared inflation scenario fading fast—no Strait of Hormuz closure, no global energy panic. Risk assets immediately shifted back into gear, with crypto surging, but that optimistic turn has run directly into structural resistance.

Oil 1D timeframe:

Oil’s collapse confirms markets expect a calming phase in the Middle East. But major technical overheads on risk assets suggest caution; fast bounces are now running on fumes unless something new appears in the macro.

What’s next

Will BTC and the majors consolidate and reclaim those resistances, or does a failed breakout mean distribution and trap longs? Markets hinge on both headlines and technicals—one false move, and the summer’s optimism could evaporate fast. Is the relief rally already out of steam?

Dovish FED talk: Rate cuts move into the spotlight

FED officials Bowman and Waller—both Trump appointees—signalled their support for rate cuts as soon as the July meeting, contingent on coming labour data. The market is sceptical on July, pricing just a 16.5% likelihood, but sees a 67.6% chance by mid-September. The decisions now ride on PCE inflation data (Friday) and incoming trends: surprise softness opens the door sooner, while sticky inflation (or a sudden resurgence from oil) will defer action to October or even later.

30th July FED meeting – odds of rate cut:

17th September FED meeting – odds of rate cut:

The macro takeaway: The path is open for easier policy, but markets are forward-looking. A soft inflation read could start the next leg higher—or at least keep downside limited into Q3’s crucial events.

Crypto majors test resistance: BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE assessed

The ceasefire bounce rocketed majors up to clear horizontal resistance: BTC at $105,500; ETH at $2,420; SOL at $144; HYPE just below $39.40. All four are now navigating the classic “react or reject” setup—further momentum must reclaim and consolidate above these levels to justify sustained optimism.

BTC 1D timeframe:

ETH 1D timeframe:

SOL 1D timeframe:

HYPE 1D timeframe:

The looming question: is this simply a relief rally after headline stress, or the start of fresh momentum that can power through resistance and drag alts higher too?

TOTAL3 signals and alt/meme potential

While the major coins test ceilings, TOTAL3 (the broad alts/memes market cap) provides a critical context clue. Despite breaking down during the Iran scare, it’s since reclaimed both $784b and $807b support levels. TOTAL3 remains stuck in a downward channel—a classic setup where ongoing consolidation above support and squeeze into trendline resistance sets up a medium-term breakout. If majors reclaim resistance and ETF flows improve, this is where the outperformance rotation could fire up in coming weeks.

TOTAL3 1D timeframe:

ETF flows: Steady, cautious optimism

ETF inflows into BTC remain positive, though momentum slowed amid last week’s geopolitical turbulence. Persistent buying here is a critical macro tailwind: if flows persist or accelerate with dissipating tension, broad uptrends are far more likely to sustain. Lacklustre demand, or a reversal, signals a serious risk that relief rally fades into further chop or even a retest of old range lows.

BTC ETF inflows:

Cryptonary’s take: Still buying dips, but don’t chase into resistance

The recent period forced traders to navigate Middle Eastern headlines and macro swings, but those chaotically bearish scenarios are mostly behind us—at least for now. Core positions in SOL ($125–$130 range buys) and ETH ($2,160) were accumulated into the volatility. With summer chop likely, the plan is unchanged: buy material pullbacks and consolidate positions rather than chasing bounces into illiquid resistance. The September/October window for rate cuts is the likely Q4 catalyst that will drive bigger moves. Real opportunities will come to those patient during summer; disciplined entries remain the edge.

Conclusion: Time for patience as resistance is tested

This is a moment for restraint—not euphoria. Majors have run to the very levels where trend reclaims must be proven. If BTC, ETH, and SOL can consolidate above, the stage is set for another shot at highs into Q4 (and broader alt momentum). But a harsh rejection here loops markets straight back into the grind of headlines, disappointment, and summer chop. Let the market answer: fade, or follow through?